O8
Did I play this terribly? Did I play it great? I either totally overplayed it, or I appropriately built a big pot in a shorthanded game on the strength of a hand with solid equity. I think this is a great hand to take a look at from the perspective of risk/reward, controlling pot size, and aggression vs. “wait and see” approaches in O8.
Preflop, I make it pot from the BB when I could have checked and seen the free flop.
On the flop, I bet pot when it looks like I could have check/called. I end up all in on the flop, but if played slowly, I would have had choices to make still on the turn.
Super aggro or Martin style? Which produces the better long-term results in O8 on hands like this? I’ve been playing them aggro because I think I’m getting my money in with great equity, and while you are rarely dominating in O8 the way you can be in hold’em, getting it in good is still getting it in good, and pressing your equity advantage when you have it doesn’t seem like a bad thing.
I rate to have a much better hand than my opponents when I pump the pot preflop here, so I like the aggression there. But what’s the right play on the flop? Seems like in O8 there is a fine line between "go to the felt" and "check/fold,” with a narrow strip of “check/call” in between. I mean, I can run the numbers and see how good I was against the actual hands, but I am so far away from accurately putting opponents on ranges in O8 that it's hard for me to assess my choices with solid range-based math.
I think this my rambling way of saying that controlling the pot size is pretty crucial in O8. I was the pot-builder in a $23 pot where I lost my stack. I showed aggression at each opportunity, essentially engineering an all-in on the flop. Is that a better approach in the long run than going extreme Martin by checking preflop, check/calling the flop, and then deciding on the turn if I had enough value for a bet?
Here’s how I looked preflop against these exact hands. (45.54%)
Here’s how I looked preflop against two opponents playing the top 50% of hands (41.96%) (each player was seeing way more than half the flops, so this is generous)
Here’s how I looked on the flop against these exact hands. (21.17%)
Here’s how I looked on the flop against two opponents playing the top 50%. (46.39%)
My assessment breaks down on the flop. I can say “top 50%” but that doesn’t feel right. Villain A isn’t flat calling with just any hand in the top 50%, and Villain B certainly isn’t raising with just any hand in the top 50%. But I had to act before I knew what these two were going to do (ah, position!).
The fact that I was likely quartering for low just kills my equity in the “exact hands” analysis, but sharing the nut low draw is just a hand in the range, not something I should fear every single time I flop the nut low draw. I have fantastic equity against two random top-50 hands on the flop, which is what they still were to me when I bet the flop.
This really drives home the importance of position again. If I’m acting first, I’m still looking at both opponents as having random hands in the top 50%. If I’m acting last, I get a lot of info about how the flop hit them that will infrom my actions and narrow their ranges.
Well, I told myself I would play O8 until I lost a buyin, and there you go, back to hold'em for a bit. O8 just fascinates me right now, though. A lot of the same principles Martin discussed for S8 apply to O8, just in a pot-limit environment. Good times!
$5 --> $0
15 Hands
NLHE
KK into AA, back to back. Hoping someone would raise and I could make a big reraise that looked like I was repeating my play from the previous hand. I knew babyangel was a calling station from my notes (yay notes!), so I kept leading. If this particular villain wakes up and actually raises the turn, though, I think I can let it go.
I knew I was going all the way with the hand as soon as I saw the flop. I feared aces, but liked my chances against his range and felt I had fold equity against it.
Funny, I said I would have folded to a raise from babyangel when the possible flush hit on the turn against my aces, and she shows why a little later in this hand.
Information call to study my target, and if it hurts my rep at the table, all the better.
Sick and wrong, I know, but I called really thinking that babyangel might call also. Bad expectation on my part, and I got lucky. It’s a much better call when the current nuts are a set, not a straight. You want an A to be an out, and a better chance that your opponent is semi-bluffing with a worse flush draw and not hammering with the nuts.
(99) I was supposed to cashout by 10% rule, but missed it coming up and had “autopost” on, so I played the gifted 99 cautiously. I said in a previous post that you have to treat 99 like it’s better or worse than it is, because treating it like 99 is a terrible play. OOP and playing in violation of the code, I opted for “worse” and then slowplayed it incorrectly when I flopped a set. Should have led out and built a bigger pot. The board straightened and I played it pretty soft after that.
This is a tough choice. Bankroll management says I should cash out, but the Ahab in me wants to harpoon babyangel and her three bucks badly. I guess I should play by the rules for now.
(Ad5d)I thought this was it, I was gonna land my whale and cash out according to the rules. Babyangel disappeared beneath the surface with a bunch of my harpoons stuck in her, but someone paid me solid for the nuts, so I’m going to cash out happy. (Villain had JdTh)
We’ll meet again, babyangel…
$4 --> $14.24
57 Hands
3 comments:
Well not surprisingly I am not a big fan of the play. I absolutely love the pre-flop bump. Anyone playing selective hands has a huge advantage over the run of the mill player out there even in Omaha.
But as far as the flop goes, I think I would classify that as "missing" the flop. Yes, you have the nut low going but are not there yet. If you had either of the red flush draws to go with it I'd be fine but basically you are getting your money in on a draw to hopefully get half of the pot (ignoring the four outs to a wheel for now).
I recall someone at SLP saying "don't bet your draws in Omaha" and I think that the play on this hand was exactly that. It is possible that other players may have completely missed and a stab could have taken it down but I think a stab would be more appropriate from late position.
I hear you Martin, and I’m not saying experienced O8 players would endorse my play, but a couple of comments on your comments…
First, my rule of thumb is, “Don’t bet your draws in Omaha unless you are willing to go all the way with them.” I thought there was a good chance my bet would either take it down or be called by a worse low draw, but I was self-aware that by betting I was committing myself to the pot.
Secondly, given that these guys are seeing almost every unraised flop and most raised ones, I still have 46% equity against two random top 50% hands. Being OOP totally sucking: it’s not just for hold’em any more! But if I put them on the top 90% of hands in unraised flops and the top 50% in raised flops, and my equity on that flop is crushing the “top 50%” range, shouldn’t I bet it?
If I have position, this hand is so much easier to play. I probably flat call a bet on the flop, and then see what the price is on the turn after I pick up the nut flush draw.
I think we are on the same page in general because one of the ideas I was toying with on my FTP FCC in order to make bigger scores was to play PLO/8, wait for upper crust hands then just jam because with PL you will get all the action you could hope for. I see tables with stats like avg. pot = 10K which is probably a bunch of 1K buy-ins all playing Oma-lotto. So if you can get everyone all in and even if you have only maybe 10 points advantage in expectancy, you can rack up some tidy profits against d0nks who play AFC.
As for this hand in particular though, I totally see where you are coming from. As usual, your numbers are irrefutable. Just by coming in with a top x% hand you already enjoy an advantage over basically random hands. So are you getting your money in "good"? Probably so on average and if you could play a zillion hand where you play only premium holdings and are guaranteed to get action then you will end up ahead. And while that strategy may be EV+, I guess my thoughts are that you could be EV++ if you had a board that cooperated better. You have four outs to a wheel which in all likelihood would be good but otherwise have a pair of treys to show for a high.
I'm sure it would be possible to run numbers to determine if, once you've potted pre-flop, it is more EV+ to plow through every hand with a slight edge or to save money and only put chips in when you have more two way hand possibilities depending on the flop.
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